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Introduction

Two years after its inception, the GCP continues to develop. There are over 50 active eggs as of the beginning of 2003, in Europe, the US, Canada, India, Fiji, New Zealand, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, Africa, Thailand, and Australia.

We hypothesize that our instruments (the "eggs") will show anomalous deviations associated with Global Events when there is widespread participation or reaction to the event, and we can expect large-scale coherence and resonance. We have made 131 formal predictions, based on intuitive grounds educated by accumulating experience. The GCP Prediction Registry provides details of the specific predictions. The results indicate strong correlations in some cases and virtually none in others, but overall, there is a significant accumulation of evidence for the hypothesis. A different analytical perspective, which hypothesizes that a "global" influence should affect all the eggs, is addressed by an analysis of inter-egg correlations.

Summaries of the results are given in the following tables and graphs. These are supplemented by selected examples with detailed discussion and graphic displays exploring the context of the primary analyses. The table entries for recent events have direct links to more comprehensive analyses. For example, the striking results from the Turkish earthquake were especially intriguing, and several independent analysts assessed the data and the context using various approaches. In addition to the formal predictions, we occasionally define exploratory predictions in order to gain experience or satisfy curiosity; sometimes just to have fun. These are described and discussed as Non-formal Explorations.

The first table presents an overall summary, and the results for a subset of events (designated as "high" expectation) where we expect a larger effect. In the second table, the results for individual events are shown. A column with the heading, "Prediction Source (Conf)", indicates who made the prediction, and gives an estimate of the confidence or expected effect size based on previous experience. Finally, the accumulating evidence for the hypothesis is shown in chronological graphs for all formal predictions and for the high effect subset. Other subsets can be defined in order to see what categories of events have larger and smaller effects.

We make efforts to assure that the analyses presented are correct, but we are grateful for constructive criticism, and for independent, confirmatory analyses. As of May 2001, we have added a new "control" aspect to the analysis, using a clone dataset based on pseudorandom data. In July, 2001, an independent analysis showed that the empirical standard deviation for many of the eggs is slightly different from the theoretical value. The average change is an increase of 0.0127%. An application of this factor to the formal database indicates that the net effect is to reduce the cumulative effect by a factor of 0.00025. Because this is not consequential, we will continue to use the theoretical value for computations.

Table 1: Overall Summary of Results, August 1998 to January 2003

Category Expectation Chisquare DF Probability
All Events (N = 131) Positive Trend 58045 56468 1.656-6
High Expectation (N = 31) Significant Deviation 10687 9896 2.045x10-8

Table 2: Results for Individual Predicted Events

red = significant; light red = predicted direction; green = opposite and significant
Event Description Prediction Source (Conf) REGs Resolution Chisquare DF

Probability

1. Embassy Bombings, 980807 Nelson (high) 3 15-min 69.5 36 0.00066
Omagh Bombings, 980815 Nelson (high) 4 15-min 39.5 48 0.805
US Airstrikes, Afghanistan, 980820 Nelson (low) 6 15-min 14.1 12 0.293
Swissair 111 crash, 980903 Nelson (high) 5 15-min 75.0 60 0.092
5. McGwire, record homerun, 980908 Nelson (high) 9 15-min 22.0 18 0.230
Clinton Affair Grand Jury, 980911 Nelson (med) 6 15-min 14.72 10 0.140
Nicaragua, Casitas collapse, 981030 Nelson (high) 5 15-min 5.4 10 0.863
Nicaragua, Casitas flooding, 981030 Nelson (high) 5 15-min 66.2 60 0.272
Global Peace Vigil, Twyman, 981113 Nelson (low) 5 15-min 12.2 10 0.274
10. Iraq, 11th hour decision, 981126? Nelson (high) 4 15-min 46.942 48 0.516
World Peace Prayer, 981210 Nelson (med) 7 15-min 26.402 28 0.551
Iraq, Bombing, 981217 Nelson (med) 7 15-min 24.6 28 0.651
House votes impeachment, 981219 Nelson (med) 7 15-min 71.9 84 0.824
Christmas Eve, UTC, 981224 Etzold (med) 8 15-min 52.5 64 0.847
15. Christmas Eve, EST, 981224 Etzold (med) 8 15-min 62.4 64 0.533
Christmas Eve, PST, 981224 Etzold (med) 8 15-min 55.6 64 0.764
New Years, 24 hrs, 981231 (1) Nelson (high) 9 1-sec 699 600(1) 0.0031
New Years, Times Square, 981231 Nelson (high) 9 1-sec 629.9 600 0.192
New Years, Euro vs US, 981231 Bierman (high) 9 1-sec 69.0 60 0.199
20. New Years, Maxi vs Mini, 981231 Broughton (high) 9 1-sec (Diff) 4.2 2 0.122
Senate acquits Clinton, 990112 Nelson (med) 10 15-min 41.2 40 0.417
Columbia, Armenia Quake, 990125 Nelson (med) 9 15-min 157.7 144 0.205
Nato Bombs Yugoslavia, 990324 Nelson (high) 12 15-min 65.7 48 0.045
Dow Closes Over 10000, 990329 Cohen, Nelson (med) 12 15-min 100.54 96 0.355
25. Praying for Peace, 990403 to 0503 Taylor (med) Var 1-min 383.11 360 0.193
Littleton School Tragedy, 990420 Polk (med) 11 15-min 118.067 132 0.801
Autonomy, Israel, PLO, 990505 (2) Kraak (high) 17 15-min 12.585 17 0.763
"Peace at Last", Headlines, 990610 Nelson (med) 17 15-min 212.74 204 0.323
Yugo War Ends, Milosevic, 990610 Nelson (med) 17 15-min 239.84 204 0.042
30. JFK Jr Crash, 30-min, 990717 Nelson (med) 21 15-min 43.91 42 0.391
JFK Jr Crash, 3 Hours, 990717 Nelson (med) 21 15-min 243.48 252 0.638
India, Train Crash, 990801 (3) Nelson (med) 17 15-min 302.94 256 0.023
Solar Eclipse, 990811 Nelson (med) 20 15-min 239.15 240 0.503
Turkey, Earthquake, 30-min, 990817 Nelson (high) 20 15-min 62.684 40 0.012
35. Turkey, Earthquake, 4 Hours, 990817 Nelson (high) 20 15-min 291.6 304 0.685
Japan, Nuclear Accident, 990930 Nelson (high) 21 15-min 98.25 84 0.137
Billion Person Meditation, 991025 Nelson (med) 21 10-min 91.0 63 0.012
Typhoon, India, 2 Hours, 991029 Nelson (med) 22 15-min 166.15 176 0.691
Typhoon, India, 24 Hours, 991029-30 Nelson (med) 23 15-min 531.1 533 0.515
40. Earthquake, Turkey II, 2 Hrs ±, 991112 Dunne (med) 21 15-min 359.0 336 0.186
Full Moon, Solstice, 4.8 Min, 991222 Fournier (med) 25 1-sec, epoch 284.62 288 0.545
New Year, Y2K, 24 hrs, 19991231 Nelson (high) 28 1-sec, epoch 624.41 600 0.237
est New Year, Y2K, Variance, 19991231 Radin (high) 27 1-sec, epoch 10.42 (4) 1 est 0.0013
Hi vs Low Populations, Y2K, 991231 Nelson (high) 27 1-sec (diffs) 577.22 (5) 600 0.741
45. Just A Minute, 1 Min Epoch, 20000101 Srinivasan (high) 27 1-sec, epoch 88.33 60 0.010
Papal Visit, Israel, 20000321-26 Reinhilde (high) 27-29 1-min 684.4 (6) 600 0.009
Great Experiment II, 20000423 Nelson (low) 26 1-sec 599.66 600 0.496
World Earth Healing Day, 20000504 Nelson (med) 26-27 1-sec 589 600 0.617
Concorde Crash, Paris, 20000725 Reinhilde (high) 23 1-sec 617.2 600 0.304
50. Kursk Tragedy, 30-min, 20000812 Nelson (high) 27 1-sec 657.256 600 0.052
Kursk, 10 days, 20000812-21 Nelson (med) 24-27 1-min 631.334 600 0.182
US TV: Survivors Finale, 20000823 Lettieri (low) 26 1-sec 583.8 600 0.675
Peace Summit Relig Spirit, 20000828-31 Murali Dhar (high) 26 1-min 584.9 600 0.663
Olympic Opening Ceremony, 20000915 Robin Taylor (med) 25 1-sec 608.782 600 0.393
55. Group Mind Meditation, 20000924 Nelson (med) 26 1-sec 642.65 600 0.111
Pierre Trudeau Funeral, 20001003 Chino Srinivasan (med) 29 1-sec 641.964 600 0.114
Group Mind Meditation 2, 20001022 Matthew Webb (med) 28 1-sec 530.235 600 0.981
US Election 2000, 20001107, 8, 9 ... Paul Bethke (med) 30-32 1-sec 569.282 600 0.811
Group Mind Meditation 3, 20001112 Matthew Webb (med) 30 1-sec 609.86 600 0.381
60. Group Mind Meditation 4, 20001126 Matthew Webb (med) 29 1-sec 574.53 600 0.766
Miss World 2000, 20001130 Mukesh Garg (med) 31 1-sec 333.86 300 0.087
US Election 2000, 20001208 Bethke, Nelson (med) 27 1-sec 305.81 300 0.396
US Election 2000, Finality, 20001212 Nelson, Bethke (med) 30 1-sec 666.487 600 0.031
New Year 2000-2001 Mean, 20010101 Nelson (high) 34-35 1-sec 633.16 600 0.169
65. New Year 2000-2001 Var, 20010101 Nelson (high) 34-35 1-sec 664.752 600 0.034
Lovewave 010101, 20010101 Nelson, Lettieri (med) 34-35 1-sec 697.280 600 0.0036
Central America Quake, 20010113 Nelson (med) 35 1-sec 650.043 600 0.077
Bush Inauguration, 20010120 Nelson (med) 32 1-sec 559.667 600 0.879
Kumbh Mala, India, 20010124 Panchal, Srinivasan (med) 35 1-sec 656.216 600 0.055
70. Western India Quake, 20010126 Nelson (med) 33 1-sec 568.80 (7) 600 0.815
WorldPuja Webcast, 20010331 Joanne Karl, Nelson (med) 36 1-sec 624.70 600 0.235
Johrei Ceremonies, 20010401 Nelson, Ammar (high) 36 1-sec, epoch 665.430 600 0.033
Earth Day, 2001, 20010422 Nelson (med) 32 1-sec 663.179 600 0.037
Full Moon in Taurus, 20010507 Don Watson (med) 28 1-sec 614.892 600 0.328
75. World Peace Meditation, 20010520 Masami Kondo (med) 34 1-sec 626.92 600 0.216
World Earth Healing Day, 20010621 Leigh Tremaine (high) 31 1-sec 629.59 600 0.195
Roll Your Own Blackout, 20010621 Greg, Elissa, Roger (med) 31 1-sec 577.65 600 0.737
Beijing Gets 2008 Olympics, 20010713 Peter Bancel (med) 31 1-sec 640.767 600 0.121
Buddhist Stupa Ceremony, 20010809-17 Peter Bancel (med) 34-37 1-min 593.249 600 0.570
80. Terrorist Disaster, Sept 11, 20010911 Nelson (high) 37 1-sec 667.587 600 0.028
Terror, Variance, Sept 11, 20010911 Dean Radin, Nelson (med) 37 1-sec 4.687 (8) 2 0.096
Silent Prayer, Sept 14, 20010914 Doug Mast (med) 35 1-sec 150.68 180 0.945
Sea to Shining Sea, 20010922 Paul Bethke (med) 37 1-sec 661.454 600 0.041
MUM Peace Meditation, 20010923-27 Orme-Johnson (med) 37 1-sec 623.661 600 0.244
85. Begin Afghan Bombing, 20011007 Nelson (med) 37 1-sec 625.010 600 0.232
Children Pledge Allegiance, 20011012 William Braud (med) 34 1-sec 618.075 600 0.296
Binding Spell on Bin Laden, 20011015 Greg Nelson (med) 35 1-sec 620.202 600 0.276
Assassination in Israel, 20011017 Joseph Menahem (med) 37 1-sec 627.840 600 0.209
World Series, Yankee Stadium, 20011031 Lettieri, Nelson (med) 35 1-sec 599.820 600 0.494
90. World-Wide Meditation, 20011111 Wolf, Watson (med) 38 1-sec 574.887 600 0.763
Crash of AA 587, 20011112 Nick Reiter, Nelson (med) 39 1-sec 563.153 600 0.857
Ramadan Muslim Prayer, 20011116 Pasternak, Nelson (med) 37 1-sec 666.066 600 0.031
WorldPuja Meditation, 20011116 Ferguson, Nelson (med) 37 1-sec 572.745 600 0.782
George Harrison Tribute, 200111203 Watson, Nelson (med) 42 1-sec 67.819 60 0.228
95. Astrological Moments, 20011209-14 Anonymous, Nelson (med) 42-43 1-sec 663.329 600 0.037
New Year 2001-2002, Mean, 20020101 Nelson (high) 44 1-sec 625.560 600 0.228
Sir Peter Blake Murdered, 20011206 Peter French (med) 42 1-sec 551.374 600 0.923
New Year 2002, Var, 20020101 Nelson (high) 44 1-sec 696.552 600 0.0038
Volcanic Eruption, Congo, 20020117 Ouko, Nelson (med) 46 1-sec 577.650 600 0.737
100. Astrid Lindgren Dies, 20020128 Suurküla, Nelson (med) 46 1-sec 622.630 600 0.253
Winter Olympic Opening, 20020209 Nelson (med) 46 1-sec 642.230 600 0.113
Sri Lanka Peace Meditation, 20020315 Johnson-Lenz (med) 47 1-sec 594.443 600 0.556
Earthquake, Afghanistan, 20020325 Nelson (med) 45 1-sec 576.850 600 0.745
Passover Bombing, 20020327 Roger Nelson (med) 47 1-sec 602.375 600 0.465
105. Jenin Incursion, Israel, 20020403 Hala Azzam, Nelson (med) 47 1-sec 621.979 600 0.259
Tiger Woods Triumph, 20020414 Ray Anderson (med) 46 1-sec 593.033 600 0.572
Indigo Peace Meditation, 20020420 Don Watson (med) 44 1-sec 550.110 600 0.928
Erfurth School Shooting, 20020426 Roger Nelson (med) 48 1-sec 641.942 600 0.115
World Cup Soccer, 20020607 Tobias Bodine (med) 48 1-sec 601.345 600 0.477
110. Astrological Moments II, 20020620-23 Anonymous, Nelson (med) 47-45 1-sec 648.339 600 0.084
Summer Solstice 2002, 20020621 Joe Giove (med) 45 1-sec 580.023 600 0.713
World Cup Soccer, 20020630 Pedro de Oliveira (med) 45 1-sec 601.213 600 0.478
World Healing Day, 20020822 Tremaine, Giove (med) 50 1-sec 617.146 600 0.305
911 Anniversary, March Pred, 20020911 Eckhard Etzold (med) 50 1-sec 662.276 600 0.039
115. 911 Anniversary, Mean, 20020911 Mitchell, Nelson (med) 50 1-sec 583.119 600 0.682
911 Anniversary, Var, 20020911 Nelson (med) 50 1-sec 588.550 600 0.623
Korea's Birthday, 20021003 Martin Bucholtz (med) 51 1-sec 527.712 600 0.985
Bali Bombing, 20021012 Nelson (med) 50 1-sec 589.124 600 0.617
Tyman in Baghdad, 20021012 Multiple Sources (med) 50 1-sec 589.359 600 0.614
120. EarthDance 2002, 20021012 Petr Douza (med) 50 1-sec 592.809 600 0.575
Wellstone Crash, 20021025 Nelson (med) 51 1-sec 625.338 600 0.229
Chechen Hostage Crisis, 20021026 Nelson (med) 51 1-sec 604.693 600 0.439
Kenyan Terrorist Attacks, 20021128 Pasternak (med) 52 1-sec 566.056 600 0.836
Suicide Bombing, Grozny, 20021227 Nelson (med) 51 1-sec 617.587 600 0.301
125. New Year, 2003, Mean , 20030101 Roger Nelson (med) 54 1-sec 672.250 600 0.021
New Year, 2003, Var , 20030101 Roger Nelson (med) 54 1-sec 588.595 600 0.623
Tel Aviv Bombing, 20030105 Gadi Guy (med) 52 1-sec 595.258 600 0.547
Antiwar Protests, 20030118 Ashley Young (med) 50 1-sec 648.540 600 0.083
Columbia Shuttle Disaster, 20030201 Various, Nelson (med) 48 1-sec 566.308 600 0.834
130. Peace Meditations, 20030209 Various, Nelson (med) 48 1-sec 608.414 600 0.397
Global Peace Demonstrations, 20030215 Nelson (med) 48 1-sec 662.494 600 0.039

Notes:
(1) All cases with very large df are normalized to 600 df. For example, the analysis of this event used a one-second block size, resulting in a huge number of degrees of freedom in the original form. Because the Chisquare statistic is properly additive, an event's contribution is simply proportional to its computed probability, allowing the calculation to be redone as a superposition of the 10-minute segments; this results in 600 df.
(2) The Kraak prediction for the Autonomy ceremony originally had the incorrect day, 990504. The table value now reflects the correct day.
(3) The prediction for this event, the train crash in India, was made after hearing a general description of an analysis, and hence arguably should not be included in the "bottom line" in the summary table. If excluded it would change the result slightly in the negative direction (e.g., p = 0.0008 instead of 0.0006). In this case the ratio of degrees of freedom to the number of eggs is not a round number because some eggs dropped out or were added during the event.
(4) Radin's analysis yields Z = -3.662, and p = 0.00013. A Bonferroni correction of a factor of about 10 is required. Radin envisioned an "impulse" of coherence at midnight, so his hypothesis is assessed by a reduction of variance peaking at that time. This spike was assessed by a 1-tailed p-value, and the corresponding chisquare with a single degree of freedom was computed. If this event is excluded, as some critics have suggested, the probability for the full database is reduced by about 0.025%, e.g., from 5.50x10-7 to 6.68x10-7 (03 Oct 2001).
(5) The difference between high and low population time zones was calculated as was Broughton's similar analysis for the preceding year, but using 36 timezones.
(6) The Papal visit analysis uses standard cumulative deviation method, and the 600 df equvalent of 8640 df is used.
(7) The four-hour aftermath of this quake may be more representative than the formal, half-hour prediction.
(8) The probability associated with the cumulative variance analysis is estimated from the probability of the rise and fall around the peak during the event. It is at the conservative end of the range of reasonable estimates from contextual analyses.

Graphs of Accumulating Chisquare

The individual results in the table can be cumulated over time, to provide a summary of the GCP experiment as a whole. Because the range of degrees of freedom in the various applications is so great, an approximation using constant df is calculated for these figures. Chisquares based on very large N are converted to their equivalent with 600 df.

The following figure presents the cumulative deviation of the formal results from chance expectation, which is shown as the horizontal black line at 0 deviation. The dotted smooth curves show the 0.05, 0.001, and 0.00001 probability envelopes inside which we would find chance excursions of the Chisquares. The jagged red line shows the accumulating excess of the actual Chisquares relative to their corresponding degrees of freedom. The composite probability for the whole array of events is on the order of a few parts in a million. (The notation "e-6" means "x 1

The next figure shows a sample of 10 recalculations of the cumulative deviation using random Chisquares for the actual degrees of freedom. This graph was created based on the results as of February, 2001. The composite probability for the random data is a non-significant p = 0.123, and the variation provides a background against which the actual data clearly stand out.

The subset for which a high effect was predicted is shown in the following figure, which is also a constant DF approximation. The trend is more consistently positive, and the final probability is slightly more extreme than for the full subset. I stopped making these confidence ratings in a serious way sometime in 2002, so the figure covers only up to New Year 2


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